Stock

Gold at $3,100 and silver at $50? That might’ve sounded wild a year or two ago, but it’s now the upper trajectory some analysts are eyeing. With consumer confidence cratering to a 12-year low, inflation expectations rising, and central banks hoarding bullion like it’s the latest fashion, gold is holding firm above $3,000 per ounce and silver is knocking on $34.

There’s another thing to consider: the gold-to-silver ratio is still high, reaching 91:1 on Monday and 89.7 on Tuesday, hinting that silver may be massively undervalued. If the ratio snaps back to historical norms, silver could explode past $40, even $50, while gold edges toward $3,100 or higher.

FIGURE 1. CHART OF GOLD/SILVER RATIO. The historical average is at 65:1, well below the data on the chart. Any level above 87 signals a potential buying opportunity.

Note how the price of silver, namely its rallies highlighted in the shaded area below the chart, is responding to the ratio. I’m going to cover this in more detail below, as the ratio serves not only as guidance but also as an important component for an entry setup.

So, if analysts are targeting $3,100, where is gold now, and what setup might it present? Take a look at a daily chart.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF GOLD. Gold is pulling back, an ideal setup for those who are bullish on the yellow metal.

Gold has pulled back from its all-time high of $3,056, coinciding with an overbought reading in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The Quadrant Lines give you a wide range of support levels for entry.

• The second quadrant, containing the previous swing high at $2,960, may see some bulls jumping in.
• Below that, the third and fourth quadrants coincide with the two previous swing lows near $2,890 and $2,840.

Staying within and bouncing from these quadrants could signal continued strength in the current swing. Below that level would indicate the end of the current uptrend, and whether the price reverses or falls into a range, you will likely find plenty of support at the two areas highlighted in magenta.

Next, take a look at a daily chart of silver.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF SILVER. According to the gold/silver ratio, silver may be poised for another leg up.

Take a look at the green circles highlighting where the gold/silver ratio exceeded 89. These are relatively high levels, considering that the average ratio reading is between 65 to 75 depending on the historical average you’re measuring. As soon as the ratio falls below that level, silver tends to rally. You see this twice in January, plus once in February and March; now that the ratio has risen above this level once again, will silver rally in response? That’s the big question, and one you should keep focused on.

The $40–$50 target range that many analysts are eyeing is still a distance away. The RSI, holding above the 50 line, suggests there’s room for more upside before hitting overbought territory.

If you’re bullish on silver, hoping for it to reach the projected levels above $40 and toward $50, here’s what you should focus on:

• Silver would need to break above resistance levels at $34.25, the most recent swing high, and $34.75, which would see the grey metal enter its 12-year high territory, paving the way to $40 and above.
• If silver pulls back, it should stay above (ideally) $32.75 and $31.75.
• A close below $31.75, even if it finds support at the next swing low at $30.75, would signal weakness and likely invalidate the current uptrend.

What does this mean for investors using ETFs like SLV and GLD?

As a stock investor, you’re likely not seeking exposure to precious metals in the futures or spot market. The most commonly traded metals-backed options are the following ETFs:

• SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), which you could learn more about in the StockCharts’ Symbol Summary; and
• iShares Silver Trust (SLV), whose info is also available in the Symbol Summary.

The prices will differ as ETFs are structured differently. With that said, what do these price moves mean for the ETFs?

• If gold climbs to $3,100 an ounce, GLD—designed to track 1/10th of an ounce—could be trading in the $310 to $330 range.
• If silver makes a run at $50, SLV could surge right alongside it, potentially hitting $50 per share.

If you’re looking to ride the metals rally without holding physical bullion, these ETFs offer a direct and highly liquid way to gain exposure. And if silver’s historical catch-up to gold kicks in, SLV could potentially deliver the bigger upside.

At the Close

Gold and silver are both showing signs of strength, backed by macroeconomic pressure, historical ratios (at least for silver), and the overall technical context. Silver could be setting up for a catch-up move that might outperform gold in percentage terms. So, stay nimble, watch your levels, and remember that when silver moves, it often moves fast.

---

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this exclusive StockCharts video, Joe shares how to use multi-timeframe analysis — Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts — to find the best stock market opportunities. See how Joe uses StockCharts tools to create confluence across timeframes and spot key levels. Joe then identifies strength in commodities, QQQ, and finishes up by reviewing symbol requests from viewers.

This video was originally published on March 26, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

The stronger-than-expected Services PMI reported on Monday injected optimism into the stock market. There was also some relief as news hit that the April 2 implementation of tariffs may be scaled back.

On Tuesday, however, the market hit the brakes and stalled the upside momentum. Consumer confidence fell by 7.2 points in March, a sign that U.S. consumers are worried about the economic outlook. This, along with uncertainty about tariffs and other policies, will likely remain the focus in investors’ minds.

The bigger focus should be on whether the recent upside move in the broader stock market indexes has legs. Let’s shift our attention to the charts of the broader markets.

The Technical Picture

In the daily chart of the S&P 500 below, the index crossed above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on Monday, a big hurdle for the index to overcome. Alas, the lack of follow-through on Tuesday could mean the 200-day may now act as a support level. The index could also bust through its January lows and start moving up toward its 50-day SMA.

FIGURE 1. S&P 500 INDEX BROKE ABOVE 200-DAY SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE. Will the index break above its January lows? That would be the next big hurdle.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Market breadth is showing signs of expanding, with the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index above 50, the NYSE Advance-Decline Line starting to trend higher, and the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day SMA shy of 50%.

The picture isn’t as positive for the Nasdaq Composite as it is for the S&P 500. The Nasdaq is approaching its 200-day SMA, and market breadth is showing signs of improvement, although slight (see chart below).

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF THE NASDAQ COMPOSITE. The index is approaching its 200-day SMA while its breadth is showing slight signs of expanding.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Of the three broader indexes, the Dow is the one showing the most promising upside move (see chart below). Like its close cousins, it crossed above its 200-day SMA, but its market breadth has expanded more than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Its BPI is at 60 and the A-D Line is relatively high. The percentage of Dow stocks trading above their 200-day SMA is at 19%, but remember, the Dow has only 30 stocks in the index.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE. The 200-day SMA is now a support level. All three breadth indicators are showing signs of rising.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Small-cap stocks have lagged the larger indexes and, even though the S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) bounced off its March 13 low, there’s not enough follow-through to carry small caps higher. Replace the symbol in any of the above charts with $SML.

Bonds turned around on Tuesday in response to the weaker consumer confidence data. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield Index ($TNX) rose until the consumer confidence data was released, after which it slid lower. This was the move that should have raised eyebrows.

Bond Yields Also Teeter-Totter

Movements in Treasury yields are very telling about the state of the economy. To keep tabs on the movement in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, investors should monitor the Japanese yen. This may not be something you usually look at, but, given we’re in an environment where conditions change from one day to the next, it’s helpful to add a chart of the U.S. dollar relative to the yen in your ChartLists.

The daily chart of $USDJPY below has an overlay of the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA). The bottom panel monitors the performance of the 10-year yields.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF THE U.S. DOLLAR VS. JAPANESE YEN. The currency pair gives an idea of the overall health of the U.S. economy.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Generally, when U.S. Treasury yields fall, the U.S. dollar weakens relative to the yen. On Monday, the dollar rose relative to the yen when equities and Treasury yields rose, but fell on Tuesday, in conjunction with the fall in yields. You can see the close correlation between the two in the chart above.

On Monday, $USDJPY broke above the 21-day EMA. On Tuesday, the EMA acted as a support level. Can the dollar hold on to this support level and continue to strengthen relative to the yen? Yields generally rise when the economy is growing, so monitoring this chart regularly will give you a general idea of how the U.S. economy is performing.

Other Market Activity

Sector rotation was all over the place, moving back and forth from offensive to defensive. On Tuesday, Utilities, Health Care, and Real Estate were the worst-performing sectors. Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials were the best-performing sectors. However, the change was modest, so there’s not enough to confirm a move from offensive to defensive or vice versa.

Closing Bell

Overall, the market isn’t showing convincing directional movement. Tuesday’s market activity was a bit like watching paint dry—not too exciting relative to what we have seen in the last few weeks. The upside move we saw since Friday seems to have slowed. The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) eased and closed at around 17, so today’s lackluster price movement didn’t do anything to make investors fearful.

The most important data this week will probably be the February PCE, which is released on Friday. Let’s see if that stirs things up.

---

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this video, Dave breaks down the upside bounce in the Magnificent 7 stocks — AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, and more — highlighting key levels, 200-day moving averages, and top trading strategies using the StockCharts platform. Find out whether these leading growth stocks are set for a bullish reversal or more downside. Will the rally hold?

This video originally premiered on March 24, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

Markets surged out of the gate Monday morning, with all three major U.S. indexes notching early gains. But after a bruising two-week rout on Wall Street, the question facing investors is whether stocks can sustain the rebound.

If Monday’s bounce is driven more by short-term bargain hunting than long-term conviction, then certain scans, like StockCharts’ Strong Uptrends to New Highs can help cut through the noise — flagging the outliers breaking key levels and showing enough momentum to possibly hold the upward move.

How I Scanned the Market at the Open

First stop: A high-level sweep of the S&P 500 using MarketCarpets to catch the early movers. From there, I drilled down into the sectors to see where real strength, or weakness, was taking shape.

FIGURE 1. MARKETCARPETS S&P 500 AND SECTOR VIEW. The S&P 500 view gives you a sea of green, but zooming into sectors, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stands out above the rest.

Consumer Discretionary is outpacing all sectors, a signal worth noting. Instead of looking for leadership, I considered stocks hitting new highs, and then checking to see if any Discretionary names stand out from the pack.

So, next, I ran a Strong Uptrends To New Highs scan (you can find it in your scan library).

FIGURE 2, IMAGE OF THE SCAN AS IT APPEARS IN THE LIBRARY: This is one among numerous bullish scans you can run in StockCharts.

Only four stocks came up as a result. The most recognizable figure is Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI).

Darden Restaurants Stock: A Tasting Menu of Profits or Bloat

Even if you’re unfamiliar with the stock, you know Darden. Here’s a short list: Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, Yard House, Ruth’s Chris Steak House, Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen, Chuy’s, Bahama Breeze, and a few more. Sound familiar?

DRI jumped after reporting strong fiscal Q3 results, with sales and EPS rising. The company also raised its full-year outlook and declared a $1.40 dividend; analysts also gave it an upgrade.

On the technical side of things, DRI also showed up on several other scan engines which appeared in the StockCharts Symbol Summary:

• Moved Above Upper Bollinger Band
• Moved Above Upper Price Channel
• P&F Double Top Breakout
• Moved Above Upper Keltner Channel
• New 52-week Highs
• P&F Spread Triple Top Breakout

Let’s take a look at DRI’s relative performance against its sector (XLY) and the S&P 500 using PerfCharts.

FIGURE 3. PERFCHARTS OF DRI, XLY, AND $SPX.  DRI’s outperformance is very recent, according to this chart.

This chart tells an interesting story. DRI has been the laggard for most of the last 12 months, though it began picking up steam as XLY began outpacing the S&P 500. As tariff fears brought XLY valuations down toward S&P levels, DRI maintained its valuations, and after a two-week dip, shot higher.

Let’s take a longer-term look using a weekly chart.

FIGURE 4. WEEKLY CHART OF DRI. The dotted line shows this week’s breakout to all-time highs.

So, what does this chart tell us relative to the PerfCharts above? First, while DRI has been underperforming XLY and the S&P over the last year (and longer than that if you extend the PerfCharts analysis period), the stock has been chugging along on a slow and steady, albeit volatile, uptrend, staying well above its 200-period simple moving average (SMA).

The StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) line shows you that DRI has had periods fluctuating from technical strength to weakness. I consider the 70-line signal, more or less, to be the strength threshold, and right now, the stock is at 92, an extremely bullish level. The question now is whether it can maintain its trajectory and if so, might there be an entry point for those who are bullish on the stock?

For that, let’s shift over to a daily chart.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF DRI. Watch the momentum and volume.

DRI has been marching steadily upward since the middle of last summer, with its recent push to all-time highs fueled by strong fundamentals. However, in terms of momentum and volume, the Money Flow Index (MFI), which is a volume-driven RSI of sorts, has been declining during DRI’s rise, signaling the potential for a pullback.

Whether DRI can sustain its current momentum remains to be seen. In the meantime, the Ichimoku Cloud can help anticipate and gauge any potential pullback, with a broad support zone forming below. The first key level to watch is $192, while $180 marks a critical support line — a close below that could open the door to further downside.

At the Close

This scan-driven approach began with a broad market view and drilled down to individual stocks that made new highs while others merely rebounded. DRI emerged as a standout: a fundamentally strong name hitting new highs while much of the market remains in recovery mode. Whether it continues to climb or pulls back toward support, tools like the Ichimoku Cloud and volume-based indicators can help you manage the risk and prepare for entry.

---

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Seeing that the earnings slate is light, this week we focus on certain stocks to watch during uncertain times.

If you are jittery and risk-averse, we have two safer (boring) stocks, plus one tech stock that has shown great relative strength compared to its peers. Let’s do a deep dive into all three.

American International Group (AIG)

Insurance stocks have done quite well in the current volatile environment. As inflation fears mount, it’s ironic that an inflationary sector is a good one to buy in the current cycle.

We can go with a basket of insurance stocks by adding the iShares U.S. Insurance ETF (IAK), which is up 7.3% YTD, but, for this article, let’s focus on one of its leaders, AIG.

Fundamentally, results have been solid and bolstered by a strong buyback program. AIG pays a dividend of 1.9%. Analysts, according to Bloomberg data, have the equivalent of 12 buys, 8 holds, and 0 sells with an average price target at current levels of $85.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF AIG. The stock is one of strongest within its sector and is likely to be more stable.

Technically, let’s keep it simple. Looking at multiple time frames, we are seeing breakouts. There are great risk/reward set-ups based on these patterns. It’s one of the strongest within the sector and looks attractive above $80. 

Shares won’t run up like a tech stock, but, in tougher and unpredictable times, look for more stable and slow growth with solid returns; thus, one of the best within the insurance sector.

John Deere (DE)

Another stock with great relative strength within the Industrial sector is DE. It’s up 11.3% year-to-date and outperforming both the Industrials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) (up 0.2% year-to-date) and the S&P 500 (-4%).

Fundamentally, John Deere’s guidance was not solid. Tariff concerns were mentioned, but — and this is a BIG BUT — CEO John May noted in the call that “75% of all products that we sell in the U.S. are assembled here in the U.S.” This fits well with the narrative coming out of Washington.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF DE. After breaking out of a two-year base, it looks like a great setup.

Technically, we see another great set-up. Shares experienced a major break-out of a two-year base on a weekly timeframe. The daily chart, while a tad more choppy, looks solid as well. The risk/reward set-up is also favorable to the bulls.

Again, kinda boring, but pullbacks have been bought. An upside target of $540 over the next year is very plausible given the base it broke out of on the weekly. Use a near-term stop on a pullback just under the $440 level, depending on your risk tolerance.

Broadcom (AVGO)

Broadcom (AVGO) is anything but boring. It’s the third biggest weight in the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH), fourth in the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) and eighth in S&P 500. It’s one of the biggest stocks in a sector that has been struggling. And yet, when you look at it technically, it’s a top name with great relative strength.

Fundamentally, AVGO had a great quarterly result. AI chip revenue was up 220% y-o-y to $12.2 billion. The $69 billion acquisition of VMWare (end of 2023) is starting to pay dividends, as it helped expand its software business now that it has a full year under its belt. Like most semiconductor stocks, it hasn’t recovered since the DeepSeek news.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF BROADCOM STOCK. AVGO has retraced to its 200-day simple moving average and looks like a good risk/reward setup.

Yet technically, shares have retraced back to the rising 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and held. That level also coincides with the gap from which it broke above. Thus, the former major resistance area now becomes support. This gives investors a good risk/reward set-up, using the recent lows just below $177 as a near-term stop.

We can also see a bullish crossover in the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD), which signaled a buy signal last week. Between solid support holding, good technical relative strength, and a MACD buy signal, shares could run back to $215. That target would reach its declining 50-day moving average. If we see momentum come back into the sector, this should lead the rally.

---

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

If one word could characterize this week’s stock market price action, it would be “sideways.” At least it’s better than trending lower.

The stock market seemed comfortable with the Federal Reserve’s message on Wednesday, but lost that upside momentum and wasn’t able to follow through on the upside move until the last 30 minutes of Friday’s trading.

The Dow ($INDU), S&P 500 ($SPX), and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) managed to eke out gains, ending the week on a slightly optimistic note.

On the bright side, the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) pulled back from its March 10 level. Even quadruple witching Friday—when contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single-stock futures all expire—didn’t see volatility spike too high. That said, the VIX is still elevated, relatively speaking, so we’re not exactly in complacent territory.

Quarterly earnings reports from Nike, Inc. (NKE), FedEx Corp. (FDX), and Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) didn’t help. The most troubling of the three is FDX. FedEx’s performance indicates the overall health of the U.S. economy. Tariffs, declining consumer confidence, and uncertainty about economic growth could be headwinds, for FedEx and other companies.

The weekly chart of FDX below shows the stock is trading below its 150-week exponential moving average (EMA) with its 40-week EMA trending lower. FDX has been underperforming the Industrials Select Sector SPDR (XLI) since early September 2024.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF FEDEX STOCK. FDX is trading below its 150-week EMA and underperforming the Industrial sector. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Be sure to save this chart to your ChartLists. It acts like a monitor to check the U.S. economy’s pulse.

Precious Metals Shine

But it’s not all negative. Gold and silver prices have trended higher with gold hitting an all-time high this week. The daily six-month chart of gold futures ($GOLD) below shows that gold prices are trading above $3,000 per ounce.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES. Gold prices have rallied most of the year and could keep rising if investors invest in safe-haven assets such as gold. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

In addition to trading above its 50- and 200-day SMAs, gold is outperforming the S&P 500. A rise in gold prices indicates risk-off sentiment, and, if investors continue to sell off stocks, gold prices could rise further. This is another valuable chart to monitor when uncertainty reigns.

Next week is heavy on macro data, so this back-and-forth movement could continue. Fasten your seatbelts.

---

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

• S&P 500 up 0.51% on the week, at 5667.56, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.2% on the week at 41,985.35; Nasdaq Composite up 0.17% on the week at 17,784.05.
• $VIX down 11.39% on the week, closing at 19.28.
• Best performing sector for the week: Energy
• Worst performing sector for the week: Utilities
• Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Elbit Systems, Ltd. (ESLT); XPeng, Inc. (XPEV); Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Applovin Corp. (APP); Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB)

On the Radar Next Week

• March S&P Global PMI
• February PCE
• Q4 GDP Growth Rate (final)
• Fed speeches from Bostic, Barr, Kugler, and others

---

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Tuesday’s stock market action marked a reversal in investor sentiment, with the broader indexes closing lower. The S&P 500 ($SPX), Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ), and Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) are still below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Investor anxiety is elevated ahead of the Fed’s culmination of its two-day policy meeting. The risk-off sentiment is back, with gold and silver prices rallying. But it may not all be due to the risk-off mode, as lower US Treasury yields and the lower US dollar may have also played a role in the precious metal rally. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) hit a new all-time high and silver prices are on the rise.

Technology and consumer discretionary were Tuesday’s worst-performing sectors, while Energy and Health Care took the lead but rose modestly. Overall, it was a pretty red day for U.S. equities (see the StockCharts MarketCarpet below).

FIGURE 1. A SEA OF RED. Tuesday’s StockCharts MarketCarpet was a sea of red with specks of green in the Energy and Health Care, Real Estate, Materials, and Industrials sectors.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The Mag 7 Unwind

The mega-cap, Mag 7 stocks stand out strongly in Tuesday’s MarketCarpet. The daily chart of the Roundhill Big Tech ETF (MAGS) below shows how these stocks are in a steep fall. The ETF fell below its 50-day SMA and struggled to retain its position above it. The fall from the 50-day to the 200-day SMA was like an elevator ride down. MAGS managed to find a little resistance at its 200-day SMA, but that was short-lived. 

FIGURE 2. ROUNDHILL BIG TECH ETF (MAGS) SLIDES BELOW 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE. After sliding below its 50-day SMA, MAGS fell hard and continued sliding as it broke below the 200-day SMA.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The rise in volume after MAGS fell below its 200-day SMA suggests there’s a lot more selling than buying. The relative strength index (RSI) is hovering above 30, which implies it isn’t oversold yet. So there’s a chance MAGS could fall lower, although it could reverse before dipping into oversold territory.

International Markets

Meanwhile, the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI), iShares MSCI Germany (EWG), iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI), and other European stock ETFs are rising. The daily chart of the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA), which has its top 10 holdings in European companies, is hitting all-time highs (see below).

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF ISHARES MSCI EAFE ETF. European stocks have been rising since early 2025. The 50-day SMA has crossed above the 200-day and price is well above the 50-day SMA.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

With elevated tariff uncertainty, a slowdown in the U.S. economy, and declining U.S. consumer confidence, it shouldn’t be surprising to see investors diversifying their holdings across different asset groups. This reiterates the importance of having a diversified portfolio spread across different sectors, precious metals, international stocks, and bonds. 

The Closing Bell

Tuesday’s reversal after a two-day winning streak suggests investor uncertainty remains prominent. The Federal Reserve policy meeting ends on Wednesday. Chairman Powell’s press conference is the main event to listen to on Wednesday, but really, any headline could rock the markets in either direction. The best you can do is stay diversified.

---

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this exclusive StockCharts video, Joe breaks down a new SPX correction signal using the monthly Directional Lines (DI), showing why this pullback could take time to play out. He explains how DI lines influence the ADX slope and how this impacts shorter-term patterns. Joe also reveals a strong area in the commodity market defying the correction and highlights top stocks within that sector. Plus, he analyzes QQQ and IWM, covering their recent weakness and key resistance levels, before analyzing viewer symbol requests for the week, including ADMA, CSCO, and more.

This video was originally published on March 19, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

Last week, tariff talks, recession fears, and waning consumer sentiment sent stocks lower. This week, the narrative may have shifted, as investors prepare for a macro-filled week and NVIDIA’s annual GTC developers’ conference.

Retail sales data for February came in slightly lower than expectations but better than January’s number. This, along with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant’s comments about the necessity of the economy undergoing a detox period, may have eased investor worries. All broader equity indexes closed higher on Monday, marking two solid up days in a row.

Next up, we have home prices and new home sales, an important measure of consumer health. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) went through a steep downturn as did the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT). Consumer spending is a major contributor to GDP growth which is why these two charts should be on every inverter’s radar. While both ETFs saw an upside swing on Monday, it’s not enough to change the trend (see chart below).

FIGURE 1. SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF AND SPDR S&P RETAIL ETF. Both saw a significant slide in value. The upside swing in the last price bar needs to see a lot more momentum and follow through and a confirmed trend reversal. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Both ETFs (XHB in the top panel and XRT in the bottom panel) are trading below their 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Monday’s upside move is significant enough to alert investors that perhaps momentum is starting to change. It could be the start of a reversal, a short-term rally that resumes its downtrend, or the beginning of a sideways move. Regardless, it’s worth monitoring the sectors and specific industry groups to get an idea of the general investor sentiment. The StockCharts MarketCarpets can go a long way in giving a big-picture view of the overall market (see below).

FIGURE 2. IT’S MOSTLY A SEA OF GREEN EXCEPT FOR THE HEAVY-WEIGHT LARGE-CAP STOCKS. There was money flowing into the market, especially in the Real Estate, Energy, and Consumer Staples sectors. Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Money flowed into the Real Estate, Energy, and Consumer Staples sectors, but all 11 S&P sectors closed in the green. The weakest performer was Consumer Discretionary—you can thank the slide in Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) for that.

All Ears on Fed

Perhaps the most important macro-event this week will be the FOMC meeting. Although an interest rate cut isn’t expected, there’s still uncertainty surrounding tariffs. When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell takes the podium on Wednesday, investors will be listening for clues about economic growth and inflation expectations.

Bond prices are showing signs of rising. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which has been trending higher this year, closed modestly higher. Gold and major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ether also closed higher.

The Bottom Line

While it’s encouraging to see the stock market show upside momentum after sliding lower for almost a month, take things one day at a time. If you have some cash sitting on the sidelines, be patient and wait for confirming signals of a trend reversal.

---

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.