Bank Your Winners

1. Australia

Lithium production: 88,000 metric tons

In 2024, Australia produced 88,000 metric tons of lithium, making it the world’s largest producer of lithium. Although the country tops the list, year-over-year production decreased just over 4 percent from 91,700 MT in 2023 to 88,000 MT in 2024.

It’s likely the country’s lithium production declined in 2024 as a result of weaker demand in the EV space, which in turn pushed lithium prices lower.

Australia is home to many significant lithium mines. The Greenbushes hard rock lithium mine in Western Australia is operated by Talison Lithium, a subsidiary that is jointly owned by miners Albemarle (NYSE:ALB), Tianqi Lithium (OTC Pink:TQLCF,SZSE:002466) and IGO (ASX:IGO,OTC Pink:IPDGF). Greenbushes has been in operation for over a quarter of a century, making it the longest continuously running mining area in the state.

The Greenbushes complex also houses four spodumene concentrate plants with a combined annual production capacity of 1.5 million MT. The mine supplies spodumene to the Kemerton lithium plant and other Albemarle conversion sites worldwide for processing.

Mount Marion, a joint venture between Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN,OTC Pink:MALRF) and Ganfeng Lithium (OTC Pink:GNENF,SZSE:002460,HKEX:1772), is another key lithium mine in Australia. The project, which is located in the Yilgarn Craton, southwest of Kalgoorlie, also contains a processing plant with an annual production capacity of 600,000 MT.

Australia also holds 7 million MT of identified JORC-compliant lithium reserves, which puts it behind Chile’s 9.3 million MT. It is worth noting that most of Australia’s lithium supply is exported to China as spodumene.

2. Chile

Lithium production: 49,000 metric tons

Chilean lithium production topped 49,000 metric tons in 2024. Lithium miners in Chile have steadily increased the nation’s output by 127 percent since 2020 when production was 21,500 MT.

Chile’s year-over-year growth has positioned it as the second top lithium producer in the world. Unlike Australia, where lithium is extracted from hard-rock mines, Chile’s lithium is found in lithium brine deposits.

The Salar de Atacama salt flat in Chile generates roughly half the revenue for SQM (NYSE:SQM), a top lithium producer. The Salar de Atacama is also the home of another top lithium brine producer — US-based Albemarle.

In April 2023, market participants and lithium miners were surprised by the Chilean government’s plans to nationalize the lithium industry. While ultimately it wasn’t a true nationalization, the country is moving to gain controlling stakes in lithium assets in the Salar de Atacama and Maricunga through its state-owned mining company Codelco.

SQM has signed an arrangement with Codelco that will allow it to continue operations in the Salar de Atacama until 2060. The two companies will create a new entity for the operations, with Codelco owning 50 percent plus one share of the company.

Chile’s lithium potential has also attracted the attention of major US oil companies. In February 2025 news broke that Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) is in talks with Chilean officials about lithium opportunities, as fossil fuel firms ramp up investments in EV battery metals.

US oilfield services firm SLB (NYSE:SLB) is also expanding into lithium, with its Head of Mining, Nicholas Lugansky, meeting Chilean officials in January. SLB is among eight companies testing lithium extraction techniques and technologies in northern Chile.

Lithium brine operations in Chile’s Salar de Atacama.

Freedom_wanted / Shutterstock

3. China

Lithium production: 41,000 metric tons

China produced 41,000 metric tons of lithium in 2024, earning it the third spot on the top producing countries list. The Asian country saw its lithium supply grow by nearly 15 percent year-on-year, from 35,700 in 2023 to 41,000 in 2024.

China is the largest consumer of lithium due to its electronics manufacturing and EV industries. It also produces more than two-thirds of the world’s lithium-ion batteries and controls most of the world’s lithium-processing facilities. China currently gets the majority of its lithium from Australia, but it is looking to expand its capacity.

In January of 2024, China announced the discovery of a massive million-metric-ton lithium deposit in the country’s Sichuan Province. Lithium exploration in China over the last three years has boosted the country’s lithium reserves by 1 million MT, to 3 million MT, according to the USGS.

However, in early 2025 the China Geological Survey, pegged the nation’s total reserves to be more than 30 million MT.

4. Zimbabwe

Lithium production: 22,000 metric tons

In 2024 Zimbabwe’s lithium production ballooned to 22,000 metric tons, an exponential increase from 2022’s 800 MT. Year-over-year lithium output rose 47 percent between 2023 and 2024, from 14,900 MT to 22,000 MT.

Total reserves in Zimbabwe have also seen growth climbing from 310,000 MT in 2023 to 480,000 MT as per the US Geological Survey.

In December 2022, Zimbabwe banned the export of raw lithium in an effort to build out the nation’s capacity to process battery-grade lithium domestically. The ban excludes companies that are already developing mines or processing plants in Zimbabwe. Lithium concentrate is now on track to become Zimbabwe’s third biggest mineral export, behind gold and platinum-group metals, reported Reuters in November 2023.

Lithium-producing countries in Africa have attracted much attention from Chinese firms in recent years, especially Zimbabwe. Sinomine Resource Group (SZSE:002738), for example, bought a stake in Zimbabwe’s emerging lithium industry with the purchase of the Bikita mine, the African nation’s oldest lithium mine.

Zimbabwe’s other key lithium mines include Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt’s (SHA:603799) Arcadia mine and state miner Kuvimba Mining House’s Sandawana mine.

In September 2024, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt and Tsingshan Group,a nickel and stainless steel company, announced plans to study and build a lithium mine and processing plant at Sandawana located in the south of Zimbabwe.

5. Argentina

Lithium production: 18,000 metric tons

Argentina’s annual lithium production grew significantly in 2024, totaling 18,000 metric tons. Year-over-year lithium production increased by more than 100 percent from 8,630 MT in 2023.

It’s well known that Bolivia, Argentina and Chile make up the Lithium Triangle. Argentina’s Salar del Hombre Muerto district hosts significant lithium brines, and its reserves – 4 million MT – are enough for at least 75 years.

At present, lithium mining in the country consists of two major brine operations currently in production and 10 projects that are in development. Analysts at consultancy firm Eurasia Group project that Argentina’s lithium production has the potential to grow approximately tenfold by 2027, as per CNBC.

One of the largest lithium miners in Argentina is Arcadium Lithium (ASX:LTM,NYSE:ALTM), the result of the January 2024 merger of Livent and Allkem. The new entity is the third largest lithium producer in the world. This is soon to change as Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) is set to close its acquisition of Arcadium in early March, bringing its assets under Rio Tinto’s umbrella.

Rio Tinto also owns the Rincon lithium brine project, which is set to be a major contributor to the country’s lithium output once it begins commercial production, targeted for 2028. In December 2024, Rio Tinto announced a US$2.5 billion expansion. Once operational, Rincon will use direct lithium extraction technology and produce 60,000 MT of battery-grade lithium carbonate annually, combining a 3,000 MT starter plant and the 57,000 MT expansion.

6. Brazil

Lithium production: 10,000 metric tons

Lithium production in Brazil continues to trend higher. In 2024 the South American nation produced 10,000 MT, almost double 2023’s 5,260 MT. After achieving output of 400 MT or less from 2011 to 2018, the country’s production hit 2,400 MT in 2019 and has continued to rise year-over-year.

Brazil’s government plans to invest more than US$2.1 billion by 2030 into expanding the nation’s lithium production capacity.

At the state level, in 2023 the Minas Gerais government launched the Lithium Valley Brazil initiative, which is aimed at promoting investment in lithium mining. The program includes four publicly listed lithium companies with assets in the state’s Jequitinhonha Valley: Sigma Lithium (TSXV:SGML,NASDAQ:SGML), Lithium Ionic (TSXV:LTH,OTCQX:LTHCF), Atlas Lithium (NASDAQ:ATLX) and Latin Resources (ASX:LRS,OTC Pink:LRSRF).

EV makers are also eyeing Brazil’s lithium market. In February 2025, Reuters reported that Chinese EV giant BYD (OTC Pink:BYDDF,HKEX:1211,SZSE:002594) reportedly entered the mining sector in 2023, when it acquired 852 hectares of lithium-rich land in Minas Gerais’ Jequitinhonha Valley. The company is currently building an EV factory in Bahia state, but construction was paused at the end of 2024 due to ‘slavery-like’ working conditions.

7. Canada

Lithium production: 4,300 metric tons

Canada’s lithium production increased to 4,300 metric tons in 2024, representing a 32 percent uptick from 2023’s 3,240 MT.

The country currently produces lithium from two operations: the Tanco mine in Manitoba, owned by Sinomine subsidiary Tantalum Mining, and the North American Lithium operation in Québec, a joint venture between Piedmont Lithium (ASX:PLL,NASDAQ:PLL) and Sayona Mining (ASX:SYA,OTCQX:SYAXF).

While Canada is home to a wealth of hard-rock spodumene deposits and lithium brine resources, much of it remains underdeveloped. In an effort to grow a strong North American lithium supply chain for the battery industry, the government has invested in a number of lithium projects, including C$27 million for E3 Lithium (TSXV:ETL,OTCQX:EEMMF), a lithium resource and technology company, and C$1.07 million to private company Prairie Lithium. Both are developing direct lithium extraction technology in Canada’s prairie provinces Alberta and Saskatchewan.

In November 2023, the Canadian government launched the C$1.5 billion Critical Minerals Infrastructure Fund. The fund seeks to address gaps in the infrastructure required for the sustainable development of the nation’s critical minerals production, including battery metals like lithium.

Canada’s efforts were rewarded in early 2024, when BloombergNEF gave the nation the top spot in the fourth edition of its Global Lithium-ion Battery Supply Chain Ranking.

At the end of 2024, the Canadian government’s Export Development Canada program pledged up to C$100 million in financing to Green Technology Metals (ASX:GT1,OTC Pink:GTMLF) for the development of Ontario’s first lithium mine at Seymour Lake.

8. Portugal

Lithium production: 380 metric tons

Portugal’s lithium production remained flat in 2024 coming in at 380 metric tons, the same tally as the previous year. Output has declined drastically since 2021, when its lithium production reached 900 MT.

Most of Portugal’s lithium comes from small-scale operations targeting quartz and feldspar. Despite this lithium-producing country’s comparatively low output, Portugal’s lithium reserves stand at 60,000 MT.

In September 2024, Savannah Resources (LSE:SAV,OTC Pink:SAVNF) delayed the start of lithium production at its Barroso project in Portugal to 2027, citing prolonged environmental approval processes and regulatory hurdles. The project has also received public backlash due to concerns about the environmental impact of lithium mining.

The project, set to be Western Europe’s first significant lithium mine, is projected to play a pivotal role in the EU’s ambitions of battery material self-sufficiency. Despite the setback, Savannah remains committed to advancing the development, emphasizing its role in strengthening Europe’s EV supply chain.

9. United States

Lithium production: Withheld

In the final place on this top lithium-producing countries list is the US, which has withheld production numbers to avoid disclosing proprietary company data. Its only output last year came from two operations: a Nevada-based brine operation, most likely in the Clayton Valley, which hosts Albemarle’s Silver Peak mine, and the brine-sourced waste tailings of Utah-based US Magnesium, the largest primary magnesium producer in North America.

There are a handful of major lithium projects underway in the US, including Lithium Americas’ (TSX:LAC,NYSE:LAC) Thacker Pass lithium claystone project, Piedmont Lithium’s hard-rock lithium project and Standard Lithium’s (TSXV:SLI,OTCQX:STLHF) Arkansas Smackover lithium brine project.

The opportunity: Copper and critical mineral demand outpacing supply

Over the last 10 years, there has been a global population redistribution. For the first time, more of the world’s population lives in urban centers than in rural areas. Along with this shift has come greater densification, which has pushed electrical grids to their limits.

However, as Henry pointed out, this is just the beginning. By 2050, the global population will grow by 25 percent to 10 billion people, and the vast majority of them will live in urban centers.

“They are the engines of massive opportunity for our industry. More high rises, homes, roads and infrastructure, greater electrification, more phones, televisions, cars and air conditioning. More energy, more data centers to power AI and cloud computing,” he said.

This population boom means the world will need more of everything, from copper and steel to potash and other minerals.

As a company, BHP is a global powerhouse. Its portfolio of assets touches on a variety of minerals that will be critical in the coming decades; few, however, may be as important as copper. Henry suggests that demand for red metal will rise 70 percent over the next 15 years.

The massive surge in demand presents an enormous opportunity for the resource sector, especially for investors. Outlining the scale of capital required, Henry estimates that more than US$250 billion will be needed for mining and concentration to keep pace with demand growth, with additional funding needed for smelting and refining — and that’s just for copper.

When other minerals are added to the equation, the total could reach US$800 billion between now and 2040.

The first challenge: Finding significant critical mineral deposits in Canada

Although opportunities exist, they don’t come without challenges, and Henry suggests that the challenges exist both above and below ground.

“First, we’re going to have to find the resources… Those resources are big, large deposits that are becoming harder to find,’ he said. ‘They’re deeper, they’re more remote, they come with new technical challenges, and they’re often in riskier jurisdictions.’

This has led to BHP rethinking how it invests in exploration, seeing them not only fund and carry out exploration work itself, but partnering with other companies around the world.

Some of these partnerships have seen work being carried out in Canada with Henry suggesting considerable untapped resources in the country.

“Of course, Canada has extensive exploration history already, yet much of this has been at shallow depths in subaortic areas. So there remains potential to find deeper or underexplored parts of the country, and we’re engaged in that effort with a specific focus on copper,” he said.

The solution, he said, is to apply new technologies from other sectors, including 3D seismic sensors and muon tomography. However, this new technology generates huge amounts of data, which benefits from advances in artificial intelligence to help make sense of all the information being collected.

Henry says that BHP has taken a different approach to partnerships by borrowing from the tech sector.

“We’ve also borrowed the accelerator concept from big tech, and we are supporting innovative exploration technologies, methods, and ideas through our global accelerator program, BHP Explorer,” Henry said.

The implications are enormous for an industry that needs new ideas brought to the forefront in short timelines.

The second challenge: Government mining policies

However, the biggest challenge facing the resource sector comes not from within the industry but from outside it.

Henry suggested that the biggest changes can come from evolving government policy, and he thinks things are beginning to move in the right direction. Canada itself released a critical minerals strategy in 2021, and its latest update includes 34 minerals and metals.

“There has been a very welcome burst of renewed government interest in critical minerals in recent times, and the motivations do vary,” he said.

For some governments, this interest stems from a desire to use resources to unlock the economic opportunity associated with decarbonizing the global energy grid. Meanwhile, other governments are pursuing critical minerals needed to provide energy security, economic sovereignty and defense supply chain resilience.

Henry noted that some countries are taking steps to make themselves more competitive and are working to attract capital investment for projects through fiscal reform and tax credits. He also pointed out that some governments are streamlining the regulatory process, which he suggests will speed up development time and reduce risks.

Henry sees incredible benefits in Canada due to the strength of the mining sector, but he cautions that past successes aren’t indicative of future success. He believes Canada is in danger of missing out on the next great opportunities in the resource sector.

“Other countries have some mix of even better resource endowments in certain commodities, better tax and royalty regimes, more streamlined permitting processes, while still maintaining high standards and more productivity, enabling industrial relations framework,” Henry said.

Henry sees complacency and bureaucracy as the enemy of growth and economic security, and believes Canada needs to accelerate its efforts to match those being carried out elsewhere.

In comparison, he points to Chile, where he says they’ve accelerated permitting for multi-billion dollar greenfield projects to five to 10 years and even shorter for brownfield developments. In Canada, he said, those timelines stretch to 10 to 15 years.

“Global capital is going to flow to the best opportunities, risk return opportunities globally. So if a country isn’t constantly benchmarking and saying, what’s the combined effect of our industrial relations policies, our tax settings, our permitting process relative to the other countries that are chasing the same opportunity, we run the risk of falling behind,” Henry said.

What does this mean for investors?

Henry outlined a potential for staggering growth in the mining sector for critical minerals such as copper over the next 15 to 20 years. He suggested there is an opportunity for investors looking to get into the sector at all levels, from exploration to production.

He also noted that it is not without problems. When investors evaluate projects, especially early in development, they should recognize that a multitude of factors could determine their success or failure.

Henry touched on access to the resource, the depth of the deposit and its remoteness. He also noted that jurisdictions play a huge part in a project’s success, so investors should research a country’s permitting process and tax system, as well as why a country may look to fast-track projects and whether it affects a company’s risk analysis.

“Once capital mobilizes in one direction, sometimes it can be quite hard to mobilize back in the other,” Henry said.

What is CNN’s Fear and Greed Index?

CNN’s Fear and Greed Index is a tool designed to measure the prevailing emotions influencing the stock market by weighing seven key indicators.

The Fear and Greed Index operates on a scale from 0 to 100, with a score under 45 indicating fear, a score of 55 and above signifying greed, and one in between marked as neutral. Scores of under 25 and above 75 are labeled Extreme Fear and Extreme Greed, respectively.

How is CNN’s Fear and Greed Index calculated?

The index aggregates seven key indicators, each reflecting different aspects of market sentiment:

1. Stock Price Strength – Tracks the number of stocks hitting 52-week highs versus those reaching 52-week lows.
2. Stock Price Breadth – Examines trading volume in advancing versus declining stocks.
3. Put and Call Options – Analyzes the ratio of bearish (put) options to bullish (call) options.
4. Junk Bond Demand – Measures the yield spread between high-yield (junk) bonds and safer investment-grade bonds.
5. Safe Haven Demand – Assesses the relative performance of stocks versus government bonds.

When these indicators collectively signal heightened caution, the Fear and Greed Index falls into the fear zone, with Extreme Fear indicating widespread pessimism in the markets.

Other instances of Extreme Fear

Understanding past instances of Extreme Fear can provide insights into current market conditions. The last two notable times the index hit Extreme Fear were August 5, 2024, and December 19, 2024.

1. August 5, 2024: Global sell-off and economic uncertainty

On August 5, 2024, markets saw a sharp decline following weak tech earnings and US employment data, accelerated by an unexpected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan resulting in investors trying to unwind their yen carry trades. This caused a ripple effect across global markets:

• Japan’s Nikkei index plummeted 12 percent in a single session.
• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the volatility could be a precursor to prolonged instability.

2. December 19, 2024: Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance

Investor fears resurfaced in mid-December when the US Federal Reserve signaled that interest rates would likely remain elevated longer than expected. The announcement sent shockwaves through the markets:

• The US dollar surged to a two-year high, weighing heavily on emerging markets.
• Cryptocurrencies took a hit, with Bitcoin dropping over 15 percent in a week.

How do other fear-based indices compare?

While CNN’s Fear and Greed Index is a popular barometer of market sentiment, it isn’t the only fear-based indicator worth watching. Here’s how other major sentiment gauges compare:

Crypto Fear & Greed Index

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index tracks investor sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. Crypto markets are particularly sensitive to risk-off sentiment, making this index an important measure for digital asset investors.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also dropped into Extreme Fear with a score of 15 on March 4. This decline coincided with continued geopolitical tensions, particularly US President Donald Trump’s announcement of new 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico that day.

Doomsday Clock

Though not a financial index, the Doomsday Clock, updated annually by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, reflects global existential risks, including nuclear tensions, climate change and geopolitical instability.

As of January 28, 2025, the clock is at 89 seconds to midnight, signaling heightened global uncertainty, which can influence investor sentiment in risk assets like equities and cryptocurrencies.

What Extreme Fear means for investors

The plunge of CNN’s Fear and Greed Index into Extreme Fear territory signals widespread investor anxiety. But is this a warning of further declines, or a contrarian buy signal?

Historically, moments of extreme fear have often preceded strong market rebounds, as panicked selling creates opportunities for value investors. However, not all instances lead to immediate recoveries — some mark the beginning of prolonged downturns.

Key considerations for investors:

• Economic data: Keep an eye on employment reports, inflation data and GDP growth figures.
• Federal Reserve policy: Interest rate decisions will continue to be a key driver of market sentiment.
• Corporate earnings: Weak earnings reports could exacerbate investor fears, while strong results may signal resilience.
• Geopolitical developments: Trade tensions, global conflicts and macroeconomic policies can shift market sentiment quickly.

While fear-based indicators provide valuable insights, investors should use them alongside fundamental and technical analysis to make informed decisions.

Whether this moment marks a temporary panic or the start of a broader downturn remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: investors should be prepared for volatility in the weeks or months ahead.